Today’s market size is a bit of an exercise in guessing the low-end, ballpark size of a market for space shuttle services for the coming few years. We base this estimate on three things: (1) NASA’s labor commitments to the International Space Station (ISS) between 2011 and 2017, (2) the per astronaut cost to NASA of a ride to and from the ISS on the Russian Soyuz Spacecraft, and (3) a contract signed by NASA to contract with SpaceX, a private company, to provide cargo delivery services to the ISS. Clearly, this simple estimate is only an approximation of the potential of this market. Defined more broadly—to include, for example, what is often called space tourism—the market size in coming years is much larger.

What we present here is the minimum market size for shuttle services to the ISS based on NASA demand that grows out of the United State’s closing down of its own Shuttle Program.

Happy final journey, Shuttle Endeavor!

Geographic reference: World
Year: 2012—2017
Market size: $3.18 Billion
Source: “NASA’s Cost to Hitch a Ride on Russian Rocket Rises,” CFNews13.com, March 15, 2011, available online here. “How Many Astronauts Does NASA Need?” Universe Today, December 7, 2010, available online here. “The Shuttle Program Is Winding Down—What Next?” PCWorld, May 16, 2011, available online here. Finally, the photo used above is from NASA’s site here.