Category Archives: Transportation

Motorized Bicycles

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Ford Motor Company's eBike

Motorized bicycles can be pedaled as standard bicycles or they can be ridden with the use of a gasoline- or electric-powered engine. In 2011, Ford Motor Company introduced the E-Bike at the Frankfurt Motor Show. This bicycle has a lithium-ion battery similar to ones in newer hybrid and electric automobiles. Market share for motorized bicycles is increasing worldwide and expected to grow steadily through the 2010s.

Geographic reference: World
Year: 2010 and forecasted 2018
Market size: 30 million and 47 million units respectively with an estimated total revenue of $11.9 billion by 2018.
Source: Carrie Jones, “A Ford Bicycle,” My Ford, Spring 2012, page 9, and a report by Pike Research, “Annual Sales of Electric Bicycles Will Surpass 47 Million by 2018,” March 27, 2012, available online here. The picture comes from Ford’s media site, here.
Posted on August 7, 2012

Air Travel Globally

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Despite the dramatic declines in air travel for several years following the terrorist attacks in 2001, over the last decade, humans have been flying more and more. Worldwide, approximately 513 million passengers traveled by air in 1991 and by 2007 that figure had quadrupled, reaching 2,076 million.

Today’s market size is the value of the global airline business in 2007 and a forecast of the value in the year 2012. What is not evident from these revenue based figures is the fact that airlines, despite their growth, have not added up to a profitable business sector. In fact, since deregulation in the United States in 1978, airlines as a whole have lost money.

Geographic reference: World
Year: Forecast for 2007 and forecast for 2012
Market size: $430 billion and $711 billion respectively
Source: “The Global Airline Industry Will Reach a Value of $711 Billion in 2012, Forecasts New Report,” a press release dated March 14, 2009, announcing the publication of a market report being offered through a web service called “Report Buyer.” The press release is available here. The original report is titled Airlines: Global Industry Guide.
Original source: Datamonitor
Posted on September 16, 2011

Trucking, General Freight

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General freight truckingToday we look at the revenues generated by general freight trucking firms and specifically, those with employees. Today’s market size does not include the revenues generated by independent truckers who are categorized as nonemployers. The graph charts estimated revenues from 2001 through 2009 and presents them for local freight movements as well as long-distance.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2001 and 2009
Market size: $107.32 billion and $117.58 billion respectively
Source: “Table 2.1 Transportation and Warehousing (NAICS 48, 49) – Estimated Revenue for Employer Firms: 2001 through 2009,” Service Annual Survey 2009, page 9, issued in February 2011 and available online here.
Original source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Census Bureau
Posted on September 15, 2011

Public Transportation

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The Capital Area Transit Authority (CATA) is the largest public transit provider in the Lansing, Michigan tri-county area. The tri-county area consists of Ingham, Clinton, and Eaton counties. CATA has been operating public transportation in the area since 1972. Ridership grew steadily during the 1970s, before leveling off during the 1980s and most of the 1990s. During the 1980s and 1990s, the number of rides fluctuated around 3-4 million annually. In 1999, CATA took over the Michigan State University bus service. Since then ridership has increased nearly 3-fold. In contrast, the population of the tri-county area grew by 22.6% from 1970 to 2010. Data represent the number of rides annually on CATA vehicles in 1972 and 2010.

Geographic reference: Lansing, Michigan area
Year: 1972 and 2010
Market size: Less than 1 million rides and 11.35 million rides respectively
Source: “CATA Demand Grows with Community Need,” CATA 2011 Community Report: Greater Lansing on the Move, August 2011; Tri-County Regional Planning Commission, “Tri-County Regional Growth: Choices for Our Future,” Draft Report, August 2002 available online here; “Ingham County, Michigan” available online here; “Clinton County, Michigan” available online here; and “Eaton County, Michigan” available online here

Freight by Rail

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Moving large volumes of freight over long distances is an energy intensive proposal and something we do very regularly these days. In fact, with the rise of globalization humanity is now moving more over greater distances than ever before. Moving cargo by rail is the second most efficient means of transporting it—the first being transport over water. Coal is the commodity whose movement on railroads accounts for the largest percentage of tonnage moved by Class I Railroad operators in the United States (44%) and the largest percentage of gross revenue, when divided out by commodity type, for these operators (24%).

Today’s market size is the tonnage carried by U.S. Class I Railroads in 2010 and the value of the corresponding gross revenue earned for their transportation. The revenue number does not adjust for such things as incentive rebates offered by the railroad operators. U.S. Class I Railroads in 2010 were the following: BNSF Railway, CSX Transportation, Grand Trunk Corporation, Kansas City Southern Railway, Norfolk Southern Combined Railroad Subsidiaries, Soo Line Corporation, and Union Pacific Railroad.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2010
Market size: 1.85 billion tons and $57.44 billion in gross revenues
Source: “Class I Railroad Statistics,” June 17, 2011, a report produced by the Policy and Economics Department of the Association of American Railroads. Here is a link to the report.
Original source: Association of American Railroads

Airline Industry Worldwide

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At the Show in 2009

Today’s market size is the estimated net profits of the worldwide airline industry. The Paris Air Show is being celebrated this week and the press coverage of this important aerospace industry show is providing many interesting glimpses of the industry. The most recent recession combined with high energy costs hit the airline industry hard, causing two years of losses. Financial returns in 2010 represent a return to profitability for the industry as a whole. The mood is good at this year’s Paris Air Show as aircraft manufacturers are hopeful that orders will be healthy this year.

Geographic reference: World
Year: 2010
Market size: $18 billion (Global airline industry net profits)
Source: Nicole Clark, “At the Paris Air Show, Anticipating a Surge in Sales,” The New York Times, June 18, 2011, page B1. The image used above is from the Paris Air Show website, here.

Space Shuttle Services

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Photo from NASA

Today’s market size is a bit of an exercise in guessing the low-end, ballpark size of a market for space shuttle services for the coming few years. We base this estimate on three things: (1) NASA’s labor commitments to the International Space Station (ISS) between 2011 and 2017, (2) the per astronaut cost to NASA of a ride to and from the ISS on the Russian Soyuz Spacecraft, and (3) a contract signed by NASA to contract with SpaceX, a private company, to provide cargo delivery services to the ISS. Clearly, this simple estimate is only an approximation of the potential of this market. Defined more broadly—to include, for example, what is often called space tourism—the market size in coming years is much larger.

What we present here is the minimum market size for shuttle services to the ISS based on NASA demand that grows out of the United State’s closing down of its own Shuttle Program.

Happy final journey, Shuttle Endeavor!

Geographic reference: World
Year: 2012—2017
Market size: $3.18 Billion
Source: “NASA’s Cost to Hitch a Ride on Russian Rocket Rises,” CFNews13.com, March 15, 2011, available online here. “How Many Astronauts Does NASA Need?” Universe Today, December 7, 2010, available online here. “The Shuttle Program Is Winding Down—What Next?” PCWorld, May 16, 2011, available online here. Finally, the photo used above is from NASA’s site here.

Crude Oil Supply

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Based on a report recently issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the supply of crude oil for U.S. energy needs, from all sources, is anticipated to decline between 2009 and 2025. On a per capita basis this decline is rather large, 15.3%. This is because the population is projected to increase by 16.4% between 2009 and 2025 while the supply of crude oil is forecast to decline by 1.39%. Obviously, new sources of petroleum supply will be (are) in high demand, not to mention all other forms of energy.

Today’s market size is the daily supply in millions of barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil in the United States, for 2009 and projected for 2025.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2009 and 2025
Market size: In 2009, 14.33 mbpd and in 2025, 14.13 mbpd
Source: “Table C4. Liquid Fuel Supply and Disposition,” Annual Energy Outlook 2011, With Projections to 2035, April 2011, page 175, available online here.
Original source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

Barges

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Our thoughts turn to those living along the nation’s riverways as news of rising waters and extensive flooding are coming in from all over the Midwest and East Coast. The inland and intercoastal waterway as an important transportation highway then comes to mind, a highway on which hundreds of millions of tons of cargo move annually valued at over $75 billion. Much of this cargo is moved in barges—non-self-propelled vessels—much like rail cars for the waterway system. Barges are tied together and moved through the system by tow boats. Barges are the most energy efficient way to move things. On a ton-mile per gallon basis, (miles per gallon carrying one ton of cargo) trucks get 155 miles, rail transport gets 413 miles and inland towing gets 576 miles per gallon.

Geographic reference: United States
Year: 2008
Market size: 32,052 barges
Source: “TABLE 2: Summary of the United States Flag Passenger and Cargo Vessels Operating or Availalble for Operation by Year,” Waterborne Transportation of the United States, November 16, 2009, available online here. Energy costs per mode of transportation data comes from a report put out by the Kentucky Association of Riverports, available online here. Another Army Corp of Enginners report, titled Inland Waterway Navigation, Value to the Nation, highlights many interesting facts about the inland waterway, including how water transportation compares with other modes in terms of efficiency. It is available online here.
Original source: U.S. Army Corp of Engineers